日本機械輸出組合・エマージング市場委員会

日本機械輸出組合・エマージング市場委員会にて
2014年9月16日
「今後の中国経済・中国市場の見方について」を講演

NTU-UTokyo Joint Summer Program 2014

NTU-UTokyo Joint Summer Program 2014
August 28, 2014
I lectured on "The Impact of the Rise of China on Global Trade and Investment"

Harvard Project for Asian and International Relations, 2014 Asia Conference

Harvard Project for Asian and International Relations, 2014 Asia Conference
August 26, 2014
I attended the "China and the World" session as one of the speakers.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's visit to the Yasukuni shrine

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe visited the Yasukuni shrine at the end of 2013, triggering anger in China and Korea and "disappointment" from the US government. Yasukuni has been a hot topic in Japanese domestic politics for many years. It is a place where soldiers that had served for the Japanese Emperor and died during service are enshrined. Therefore, Takamori Saigo, one of the most prominent heroes in the Meiji Restoration is not enshrined here, because he later died during a rebellion against the Meiji government.
Until 1978, the A-class war criminals which were sentenced to death in the International Military Tribunal for the Far East were not enshrined here. Therefore, visiting this shrine could be regarded as an act to express remorse for the past war and condolence for those who sacrified there lives during the war. Emperor Hirohito visited there several times until 1975 perhaps to express his apology for the soldiers who sacrified their lives for the Emperor.
But since the A-class war criminals are included in the "gods" that are enshrined here, the nature of this place has changed. Emperor Hirohito ceased to go there, because he was angry at the Yasukuni for enshrining the people who were responsible for leading Japan to a disaster. Since then, it has become a place where right-wing activists, who believe in Japan's justice in the past wars, gather and cry for revenge on the past enemies (US, China, Russia, and Britain) that have beaten Japan up during WWII. Although Abe explained after his visit that he intended to show his resolution for not engaging Japan in war again, the museum inside Yasukuni relates a story completely different from his pacifist interpretation; a story of heroic fights of Japanese military and justifications of Japan's intentions in past wars.
A sad fact is that this time even more Japanese people than in the past have applauded Abe's visit, perhaps out of their hatred towards the Chinese and Koreans who have recently intensified their accusations toward Japan's past invasions and abuse of civilians during colonial rule. A dangerous heating-up of nationalism and antagonism is now taking place between Japan and China, and Japan and Korea. So it will not be very wise for the Chinese and Koreans to strongly react to this visit by Abe. I hope that they take Abe's interpretation at face value.
An encouraging news is that China's reaction is relatively calm compared to the fierce anti-Japanese demonstrations in September 2012. An editorial by the 21st Century Economic Herald, a Chinese economic newspaper, says that "China must mobilize the power of non-governmental diplomacy, send out more peaceful and reconciliatory signs, make good relationship with the peaceful forces in Japan, and contain the right wing's intension to change the Japanese Constitution." I am completely in line with this proposal, though I am on the Japanese side. The Japanese can correct this mistake by Abe by not letting our prime ministers go to Yasukuni again. We need to strengthen our ties with our neighbors and let them believe in our pacifist intentions.

How to bribe a Japanese ambassador

Twenty or so years ago, reading a magazine at a bookstore, I came accross an article describing how Japanese trading houses bribed Japanese diplomats posted at Japanese embassies in developing countries. At that time, Japan's official development assistance (ODA) towards developing countries was still increasing, and bribery from Japanese companies which sought the chances of earning contracts of ODA projects to the politicians and government officials were occasionally exposed in the media. The article cited an anonymous person working at a Japanese trading house who said that a convenient way to bribe Japanese officials was to play golf with them. People who play golf sometimes bet something, such as a small amount of money or a meal, on their golf match. By using this custom as a disguise, Japanese private companies could tacitly and safely offer some money to government officials, who would reject receiving outright offering of money or gifts.
This article reminded me of my former boss at the Institute of Developing Economies. I was still in the 20s, and my boss then was a scholar specialized in Myanmar. Besides doing research he was active in the Japanese ODA scene in South and South East Asia. Although I couldn't really understand why a scholar cound be so influential in governmental projects, I could feel that he was welcomed by Japanese contruction companies and trading houses which were building roads and bridges in South and South East Asia funded by Japan's ODA. Once, when I was travelling with my boss in South East Asia, he told me that he was going to play golf with a Japanese ambassador to a certain Asian country. At that time I only thought that my boss must be a great person, being golf mates with a famous ambassador. This diplomat wrote many books regarding Japanese diplomacy and famous for his hawkish views.
After reading the article, however, I understood why my boss had the glory of playing golf with an influential ambassador. For a governmental official, it might be risky to play golf with people working for private companies, because it would induce suspicions. But playing golf with a scholar working for a government-related institute would be no problem at all. At the golf club, there of course will be some other "friends", who will join together to play golf with the two, and tactically lose the match, offering some gifts to the ambassdor with a smile. Well, that part of course is my guess with no evidence. All I know is that the ambassador and my boss were no longer golf mates after the ambassador had returned to Japan.

The high speed railway of China: Is it really fast?

The terrible railway accident of the Chinese high-speed railway (or CRH) at Wenzhou, China, and the actions made by the railway authorities to cover up the accident have triggered massive criticisms inside and outside of China. Since last year, Mr. Kasai, the chairman of Central Japan Railway Company (JR Tokai), and Mr. Yamada, its president, have  been ardent critics of CRH, accusing them for "stealing technology", "stressing speed at the sacrifice of safety", and so on.  The Chinese side explained these criticisms were out of Japanese businesses' fear for losing their overseas customers to their Chinese rivals.
Unfortunately, Mr. Kasai's warnings have proved true. Now it is the Chinese railway industry which will lose its overseas customers.
In August 2011, within a month after the accident, I got on the CRH twice. The Chinese people did not seem to be so worried about its safety. One reason for this may be because the Chinese railway authorities decided to lower the maximum speed of the CRH. But, after experiencing the high-speed railway I think the Chinese railway authorities are too much obsessed by the speed of the train itself, taking little care about the speed of the journey as a whole.
I took a train from Shenzhen to Guangzhou. I arrived at Shenzhen station at around 3:35 pm. There were long queues in front of the ticket windows, but I managed to get my ticket at 3:45 pm. I didn't ask for a particular train number, but the girl at the window sold me a ticket for a train departing at 4:09 pm with a seat reservation. Then I went on to the line waiting for security check. (In China, you must go through security checks before you get on trains.)  But line moved very slow. It turned out that only one check machine out of two was working at the station. When I finally got in the station, the 4:09 pm train had already left, so I had to get on the train which departed Shenzhen at 4:20 pm, without seat reservation. In total, I had to spend 45 minutes at the station before the departure of the high-speed train. What is the use of high speed, when it takes so much time before getting on the train?
Compare with what you experience in Japan. When you want to get on the Japanese high-speed train, or Shinkansen, at Tokyo station, you must arrive at the station only ten minutes before the departure of the train you want to get on. You can buy your ticket either at the vending machine or at the window in a few minutes, unless you are very unlucky. So if we compare the speed of the trains themselves, then the Chinese CRH may be faster, but if we compare the speed of the whole journey, then the Japanese system will take you to your final destination more rapidly.
I want to propose the leaders of the Japanese railway industry: stop condemning the CRH. Just invite the foreign decision makers to Japan and China and let them buy their tickets by their own and experience train trips in both countries. They will realize the difference.

China's past twenty years through the eyes of a blue-collar woman

During my trip in China in August 2011, I came to know a TV drama series named "Chunnuan huakai" (Warm Spring, Flowers Bloom?). It is a life history of a woman, who begins her career at a state-owned factory as a quality inspector around 1990. She gets married with a young engineer who also works at the factory. Both of them start dreaming of living in America to open up new lives. Her husband manages to go to America, but the woman, who gets pregnant just after her husband has succeeded in getting the visa, is left in China with their son. She awaits her husband's invitation from America, but he cannot afford to invite her because he is having trouble making his own living. Then her factory cuts workforce as part of state-owned enterprise reform. She is dimissed from the factory in return for a lumpsum pension. She searches for a new job for some years and ends up becoming a bus conductor. Her mother gets angry because she thinks that a bus conductor is not a respectable job.
That is what happens until the 8th episode. I don't know what happens in the following 25 episodes, but it seems that she will become an entrepreneurs, divorces her husband and gets married with another guy.
Anyway, this drama series shows what has happened in the urban sector of China during the past twenty years through the eyes of an ordinary working-class woman. It shows what I have witnessed and reported as an observer of China.
I am looking forward to watching the rest of the series.