On May 27th, the Japanese government instructed JR Tokai to construct the Tokyo to Osaka maglev line. This train will link Tokyo and Nagoya in 40 minites, Tokyo and Osaka in 57 minutes, running at a maximum speed of 505 kph.
But do we really need such a train?
The present shinkansen runs every 5 minutes or so between Tokyo and Osaka. Booking a ticket is usually very easy. Besides, there are flights between the two cities every half an hour. Why do we need another line to connect the already well-connected two cities?
The maglev line is expected to start operation in 2045. In that year, Japan will have 10 million people less than it has today. Besides this, the Japanese population is aging. In 2045 we will have more elderly people who may not be willing to travel as much as younger people.
Every time I get on the shinkansen on weekdays, I find the train filled with business people who seem to have little reason to waste their time and money travelling between Tokyo and Osaka. The number of business people that travel between Tokyo and Osaka is far greater than the number of business people travelling between New York and Chicago, or Beijing and Shanghai. Japanese companies can not afford to be so generous to useless business trips in the future. Therefore, when the maglev line starts operating, it is very likely that the shinkansen will be far less crowded than it is today.
To let the train run at a very high speed, the maglev line must be very straight. This requires the line to run through the Southern Japanese "Alps" and other mountainous regions, piercing through the mountains with long long tunnels. It will be like a super-speed subway. The prefectures that lie between Tokyo and Nagoya expect that the maglev train to stop at the stations built in each prefecture. But it is very likely that only a few trains will stop at these stations, because the regions which the maglev train runs through are sparsely populated. In order to connect Tokyo and Nagoya in 40 minutes the train cannot stop at stations between them. I don't understand why the prefectures between Tokyo and Nagoya do not oppose the construction of maglev train. It will ruin their beautiful landscape without providing any convenience or economic gains to their people.
The maglev train consumes a lot of electricity, but electricity may be more expensive than today in 2045, because it is likely that only a few nuclear power plants will be operating then, and more renewable energy will be used. With fewer passengers than expectation and more electricity expenses, the maglev train is doomed to fail. So why not stop the waste and expenses now?
